2015-08 / STEADYSAT / TRADING


26 agosto 2015

Intra-day solar forecast for a 10 MW power plant in Germany

In the context of an intra-day auction market, the short term production forecast (up to 3 hours ahead) enable an optimal negotiation up to the physical delivery, including for the 15-minute contracts on the continuous intraday market in Germany.

Using the most updated satellite images is an efficient solution to assess the cloud cover motion and thus the expected solar energy production

In the examples below, three consecutive and very different days in terms of sun shining are shown

  1. Cloudy in the morning, then a significant improvement in the afternoon,
  2. Clear sky day
  3. Cloudy all day long with two short sunny intervals

The forecast information includes a confidence interval. It allows the trader to make his decisions with a quantitative risk assessment.

 

Intra day solar power forecast - 3 days 10 MW PV plant Germany

Figure 1: Actual production (in blue) vs forecast (in red/orange, the confidence interval is defined with « Pforecast min » and « Pforecast max ») – 3 days, time step: 10 minutes

 

Intra day solar power forecast - 1st day 10 MW PV plant Germany

Figure 2: Actual production   (in blue) vs forecast (in red/orange, the confidence interval is defined with « Pforecast min » and « Pforecast max ») – 1rst day, time step: 10 minutes

Intra day solar power forecast - 2nd day 10 MW PV plant Germany

Figure 3: Actual production   (in blue) vs forecast (in red/orange, the confidence interval is defined with « Pforecast min » and « Pforecast max ») – Second day, time step: 10 minutes

Intra day solar power forecast - 3rd day 10 MW PV plant Germany

Figure 4: Actual production   (in blue) vs forecast (in red/orange, the confidence interval is defined with « Pforecast min » and « Pforecast max ») – Third day, time step: 10 minutes