2016-08 / STEADYMET / Power grid management / Trading


August 12th, 2016

August: Large gaps in Belgian photovoltaic power production

Belgium reaches 3,2 GWc of installed PV power. Photovoltaic power covers close to 4% of the country’s total electricity needs. The solar output may show strong variations from one day to the next.

As a result, on August 11th at midday, the production was around 500 MWh while two days later, it was approaching 2 000 MWh (see figure 1).

These changes, if not anticipated, may have a significant negative impact on the production-consumption balance.

The most obvious solution is a good forecast!

 

solar-production-belgium

Figure 1: photovoltaic production in Belgium (from August 11th to 13th)

 

Figure 2 shows that the forecasts made the day before the given day with the different confidence intervals. August 11th, was expected to be a day with a low production and a limited uncertainty.

An important production was announced for the 13th, also with a limited uncertainty. By contrast, the confidence intervals are much wider for August 12th and the expected production is modest.

 

solar-forecast-day-ahead-belgium

Figure 2: Actual (in blue) vs SteadyMet Forecast of the day before (in red / orange for the quantiles)

 

In figure 3, we can see the forecasts supplied in the early hours of the given days. They confirm the trends announced the day before.

 

solar-forecast-before-sunrise-belgium

Figure 3: Actual (in blue) vs SteadyMet Forecast of the early morning (in red / orange for the quantiles)