2016-03 / SteadyEye / Powergrid management


17 marzo 2016

Two SW-02 Sky Imagers to foresee the production on the same area in Lyon (FR)

 

SteadyEye is operated by ERDF (the French DSO) as an experiment in Lyon to foresee the production of several hundreds of rooftop installation installed in a 5 Km radius around of the sky imagers.  (See more at http://www.sunwindenergy.com/photovoltaics-press-releases/pv-production-forecasting-world-first-start-steadysun).

One of the aggregates for which are realized the forecasts is covered by both sky imagers. They are situated in 2 km of this group of power plants, the one rather in the North, the other one in the South. Both forecasts supplied are then necessarily different.

 

Below we have the forecasts of March 17th stemming from images supplied with each of the cameras.

 

We note that the confidence interval P10-P90 (the clearer zone) is generally more important with the sky imager 1 than with the sky imager 2. This difference in the estimation of the uncertainty is bound to the relative position of the clouds, the power plants and the sky imagers.

 

It is then possible to combine these two forecasts to obtain an even more accurate forecast and with a better risk assessment.

With these forecasts ERDF is able of anticipating abrupt PV power drops over the concerned zone so to improve the management of the distribution network.

 

Solar forecasting rooftop SteadyEye camera 1

Figure 1: Sky Imager 1 – Actual (in blue) vs Forecast (in red/orange for the percentiles) – 10 minutes ahead

 

Solar forecasting rooftop SteadyEye camera 2

Figure 2: Sky Imager 2 – Actual (in blue) vs Forecast (in red/orange for the percentiles) – 10 minutes ahead