{"id":12371,"date":"2021-12-23T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-23T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/steady-sun.com\/?p=12371"},"modified":"2025-09-30T11:35:47","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T09:35:47","slug":"projet-monuter-mieux-prevoir-la-production-solaire-pour-reduire-les-couts-lies-a-la-variabilite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/steady-sun.com\/fr\/blog\/research-and-innovation\/monuter-project-better-forecasting-solar-production-to-reduce-costs-of-variability\/","title":{"rendered":"Projet MoNuTeR : Mieux pr\u00e9voir la production solaire pour r\u00e9duire les couts li\u00e9s \u00e0 la variabilit\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-6c531013 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\r\n<p>La pr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 de la ressource solaire et de sa variabilit\u00e9 pr\u00e9sente aujourd\u2019hui plusieurs limites, du fait que les mod\u00e8les m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques sont imparfaits et que l\u2019\u00e9tat de l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re n\u2019est jamais compl\u00e8tement connu. Ainsi, l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des syst\u00e8mes de pr\u00e9vision repr\u00e9sente un enjeu majeur pour int\u00e9grer plus de PV \u00e0 moindre co\u00fbt, en particulier dans les r\u00e9gions peu ou non interconnect\u00e9es.<br \/><br \/>Le projet MoNuTeR (ADEME, PIA 3) a consist\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>d\u00e9velopper, optimiser et industrialiser une nouvelle g\u00e9n\u00e9ration de technologies et services de pr\u00e9vision m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique sp\u00e9cialement adapt\u00e9s au secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie solaire<\/strong>. La cha\u00eene de pr\u00e9vision, qui repose sur l\u2019utilisation d\u2019un mod\u00e8le num\u00e9rique r\u00e9gional \u00e0 haute r\u00e9solution (jusqu\u2019\u00e0 1 km spatialement), permet d\u2019am\u00e9liorer localement la pr\u00e9cision des pr\u00e9visions de J \u00e0 J+1 et l\u2019anticipation des risques de variabilit\u00e9 de la ressource solaire \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle infra-journali\u00e8re.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-b753e853438ee8f81aaf91b2af4db7b9 is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\" style=\"color: #ffa529;\">\r\n<p><em><strong>Le projet consiste \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper une cha\u00eene de pr\u00e9vision bas\u00e9e sur le mod\u00e8le m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique WRF, dont la configuration tr\u00e8s flexible est parfaitement adapt\u00e9e aux applications solaires.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Durant les trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, nous avons :<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>D\u00e9velopp\u00e9 une cha\u00eene de pr\u00e9vision m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique avanc\u00e9e, bas\u00e9e sur le mod\u00e8le num\u00e9rique r\u00e9gional WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting)<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<li>Test\u00e9 le mod\u00e8le sur plus d\u2019une dizaine de zones climatiques (insulaires, d\u00e9sertiques, tropicales, etc.)<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<li>R\u00e9alis\u00e9 plus de 4000 simulations \u00e0 des r\u00e9solutions spatiales atteignant 1 km (&gt; 10 000 h de calculs au total)<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<li>\u00c9tabli des configurations id\u00e9ales du mod\u00e8le en fonction de la r\u00e9gion d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes locaux associ\u00e9s<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<li>Industrialis\u00e9 la solution afin de d\u00e9ployer le mod\u00e8le facilement et rapidement sur de nouvelles r\u00e9gions, tout en garantissant les meilleurs r\u00e9sultats possibles d\u00e8s la mise en service<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<li>R\u00e9duit les erreurs de nos pr\u00e9visions d\u2019environ 5-10% en moyenne dans les r\u00e9gions insulaires<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"837\" height=\"572\" class=\"wp-image-12372\" src=\"https:\/\/steady-sun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/project-monuter-steadysun-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/steady-sun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/project-monuter-steadysun-1.jpg 837w, https:\/\/steady-sun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/project-monuter-steadysun-1-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/steady-sun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/project-monuter-steadysun-1-768x525.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 837px) 100vw, 837px\" \/><\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p><em>Exemples de pr\u00e9visions de rayonnement solaire issues du mod\u00e8le WRF \u00e0 Tahiti en comparaison avec l\u2019imagerie satellitaire correspondante.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Valid\u00e9e dans des environnements complexes, la solution est aujourd\u2019hui int\u00e9gr\u00e9e dans la nouvelle plateforme op\u00e9rationnelle de Steadysun, constituant un r\u00e9el outil d\u2019aide \u00e0 la d\u00e9cision.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Plusieurs projets ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 mis en service, comme par exemple sur l\u2019\u00eele de Tahiti pour le compte du gestionnaire de r\u00e9seau (EDT ENGIE). A l\u2019avenir, d\u2019autres acteurs pourront aussi b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de ce syst\u00e8me op\u00e9rationnel dans cette r\u00e9gion, notamment les futurs producteurs ind\u00e9pendants dont les projets de centrales PV avec stockage par batterie sont en cours de d\u00e9veloppement et n\u00e9cessitent l\u2019utilisation de pr\u00e9visions les plus fiables possibles pour respecter le code de r\u00e9seau en vigueur.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Dans la continuit\u00e9 de MoNuTeR, de nouveaux travaux de R&amp;D ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 initi\u00e9s, avec pour ambition d\u2019am\u00e9liorer les proc\u00e9dures d\u2019assimilation de donn\u00e9es in-situ\/satellitaires et de prises en compte des interactions entre les a\u00e9rosols, les nuages et le rayonnement solaire, en particulier dans les r\u00e9gions arides.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-button elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-md elementor-animation-grow\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tenerrdis.fr\/projets-membres\/monuter\/\">VOIR LA PUBLICATION TENERRDIS<\/a><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The MoNuTeR project allows to optimize the quality of photovoltaic (PV) production forecast for the current and coming days, thus improving power dispatch as well as spinning reserves and storage systems management in real-time.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[79],"tags":[62,31],"class_list":["post-12371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-and-innovation","tag-solar-forecasting","tag-weather-forecasting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 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